Secretary LaHood Visits NH

As you may know, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood was in New Hampshire today attempting to defend the stimulus to a state growing more and more skeptical of its impact.

STEWARD put out the following release, lampooning the visit and laying out the real facts:

In the spirit of Halloween, Secretary Ray LaHood and local Democrats gathered today to “dress up” the stimulus package as a New Hampshire success story. It’s not. And for the 53,330 out-of-work Granite Staters, the disguise is more “trick” than “treat.”

With the Democrats talking about the stimulus today, it’s important to recap some key numbers:

· The White House promised 16,000 New Hampshire jobs when it announced the stimulus package back in February. The Administration also said that more than 90% of “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act” (ARRA) positions would be in the private-sector. (The White House, “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: State-by-state jobs impact,” 2/13/09)

· Last week, the state’s Office of Economic Stimulus disclosed that at least 2,786 of the 3,007 Granite State jobs – or almost 93% – created or “retained” by ARRA were firmly public-sector. (State of New Hampshire, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Progress Report – Data through September 30, 2009, Office of Economic Stimulus, 10/20/09)

· Although the Obama Administration and local Democrats may point to the Manchester Airport Access Road as a stimulus success, the state’s overall numbers tell a different story. According to the state’s stimulus progress report, a mere 116 ARRA-driven jobs have been in Highway Infrastructure Investment – and winter is nearly upon us. It’s a figure so under-whelming that even Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter recently acknowledged that the program hasn’t delivered on what Democrats promised.

· In September 2008, New Hampshire’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9%. When the stimulus passed in February, it was 5.7%. Unemployment in the state hit 7.2% in September. (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics)

· 53,330 Granite State residents were unemployed last month. That’s 24,540 more than last year at the same time. (New Hampshire Employment Security, Unemployment Rates, 10/12/09)

· The state has approved more than $407 million in ARRA-backed projects. That figure divided by the 3,007 jobs created or “retained” works out to roughly $135,350 per position.

These numbers are delivering this year’s real Halloween fright. Unfortunately, it seems as though our grandchildren will be taking their children “trick or treating” before the $787 billion stimulus tab is paid.

Stimulus Job Numbers Inflated - Big Time

A closer look at the White House's stimulus job numbers shows that the administration padded the actual number of jobs saved or created by up $5,000 positions. The Associated Press reports:

The AP review found some counts were more than 10 times as high as the actual number of jobs; some jobs credited to the stimulus program were counted two and sometimes more than four times; and other jobs were credited to stimulus spending when none was produced.

For example:

_ A company working with the Federal Communications Commission reported that stimulus money paid for 4,231 jobs, when about 1,000 were produced.

_ A Georgia community college reported creating 280 jobs with recovery money, but none was created from stimulus spending.

_ A Florida child care center said its stimulus money saved 129 jobs but used the money on raises for existing employees.

There's no evidence the White House sought to inflate job numbers in the report. But administration officials seized on the 30,000 figure as evidence that the stimulus program was on its way toward fulfilling the president's promise of creating or saving 3.5 million jobs by the end of next year.

The reporting problem could be magnified Friday when a much larger round of reports is expected to show hundreds of thousands of jobs repairing public housing, building schools, repaving highways and keeping teachers on local payrolls.

Coverage of the Spending Summit

From the Union Leader:

The spending summit, attended by about 100, came just a week after a two-day discussion of state tax policy that the House Ways and Means Committee held. Republicans said taxes are only half the discussion, and that spending has to be talked about too.

Timing for state spending controls is off a bit, since a new two-year budget just took effect in July. But speakers yesterday said this is actually the ideal time to start examining what state government should be expected to provide, and how to best organize and pay for it.

Arlinghaus warned that Republicans and Democrats have to work together on the difficult task of reshaping budget priorities.

"If all you want to do is snipe at the other side, you're not going to get anything done," he said. Arlinghaus cautioned that it may take more than one election to turn the ship of state spending "It's a big problem and you can't fix it if the election is first and foremost in your mind," he said. "It's going to take a long time to fix this." ...

Over the past 20 years, spending of state revenues has increased by an average of 9 percent for every biennium Budget increases vary from a 30 percent jump in 1994-95 to a 1.9 percent decline in 1996-97, according to data from the New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies.

Lieberman Connects

Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT) has connected with the concerns of the majority of Americans by saying he will oppose the President's government option health plan because Washington is simply doing and spending too much. This is an excerpt from a Wall Street Journal editorial:

The health-care debate isn't over, notwithstanding the White House-Nancy Pelosi attempt to make it seem inevitable. Majority Leader Harry Reid had barely announced his plan to include a public insurance option when Connecticut Independent Joe Lieberman declared yesterday that he'd join a filibuster against such a Senate bill.

"We're trying to do too much at once," Mr. Lieberman said. "To put this government-created insurance company on top of everything else is just asking for trouble for the taxpayers, for the premium payers and for the national debt. I don't think we need it now."

Bravo, Joe. It's a relief to see at least someone standing up to the Washington rush to rearrange 18% of the U.S. economy without carefully inspecting the cost and the consequences.

Mr. Lieberman added that he'd also oppose a bill that includes Mr. Reid's provision for states to "opt-out" of the public program "because it still creates a whole new government entitlement program for which taxpayers will be on the line." Exactly right again.

Are there jobs to count?

How to count and classify the jobs created by the federal stimulus remains a nagging question for policymakers and watchdog groups as the money from the package continues to roll out. But still, much of the evidence, no matter the metric, points to lower than expected returns. In the Granite State:

New Hampshire has assigned at least half of its economic stimulus money to various projects or programs, but job totals remain at just 19 percent of initial White House projections.

The equivalent of 3,007 full-time jobs was created or saved with stimulus money through September, according to a report released last week by Orville “Bud” Fitch, director of the governor’s Office of Economic Stimulus.

That’s a big increase from the last quarterly report, when 796 jobs were linked to the program through June. But it remains unclear whether New Hampshire will reach the 16,000-job benchmark touted by the White House

And nationally:

As the government implements the $787 billion stimulus program, the effect of the spending and tax cuts are proving difficult to measure.

Part of the challenge is that assessments of the impact often rely on imagining how the economy would have fared if the stimulus money were spent differently, or not at all. Debates continue today about the effects of the 2001 stimulus program that sent rebate checks to taxpayers.

Complicating matters further: Many spending projects might end up being short-term jolts that fizzle out, raising questions about their effectiveness. The $3 billion cash for clunkers program, funded partially by stimulus money, pulled consumers into auto dealerships nationwide. Auto sales soared in August, then slumped in September. Similar concerns surround the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers that ends next month. ...

As stimulus money slowly is disbursed, the continued troubles in the job market are renewing the fierce political battle about the giant program's performance. If the program is stimulating the economy, why is unemployment rising?

These WSJ graphs add more fuel to the skeptics' fire.

Money Well Spent?

USA Today reports on the release of some $30 million in stimulus funds to shady defense contractors:

The Department of Defense has awarded nearly $30 million in stimulus contracts to six companies while they were under federal criminal investigation on suspicion of fraud.

The companies claimed to be small, minority-owned businesses, giving them preference in bidding for government contracts, Air Force documents allege. But government investigators found they were part of a larger minority-owned firm and not eligible for small-business contracts.

The Air Force and Army awarded the companies 112 stimulus projects, federal contract records show. It wasn't until Sept. 23 — more than a year after the investigation started — that the Air Force suspended the firms from new federal contracts.

Scott Amey of the non-partisan Project on Government Oversight said the case exposes an oversight gap under the $787 billion stimulus plan and federal contracting in general. "Was there any disclosure of the contractors' missteps prior to them receiving the stimulus money?" he asked.

Air Force Lt. Col. Ann Stefanek said the stimulus projects were awarded independently by officers at military bases who wouldn't have spotted problems unless a contractor was suspended or debarred.

Federal rules let agencies terminate contracts if it's in the government's interest. Stefanek and Army Maj. Jimmie Cummings said the companies' work has been satisfactory and neither branch plans to cancel the stimulus contracts that were awarded before the firms were suspended.

Shea-Porter Stimulus Flip-Flop

Congresswoman Shea-Porter appears to be walking back her strong support of the floundering stimulus bill. As you may recall, Shea-Porter had this to say after voting in favor of the $787 taxpayer giveaway:

After seven years of mismanagement and no oversight from the Administration, the housing market is in a crisis, the economy is struggling, and families are paying more for everything from groceries to heating oil,” said Congresswoman Shea-Porter. “I’m pleased that we came together in a bipartisan manner to pass this stimulus package. It will put money in the pockets of hard-working American families and help to restore the strength of our economy.

But now, given the stimulus' dismal performance coupled with a tough campaign ahead, local and national media outlets are picking up on Shea-Porter's reversal: